Thursday’s CPI data turned out much better than expected, which took the U.S. markets to the moon. Consumer prices rose 7.7% from a year earlier, down from 8.2% in September and clearly below the 8.0% consensus forecast. The headline rate of inflation has now fallen for four months in a row, from a peak of 9.1% in June. At 7.7%, it’s now at its lowest rate since January.
Speaking by numbers the DXY fell 1.5% to trade at 108.78, its lowest in nearly two months. The S&P 500 climbed 5.54% to end the session at 3,956.31 points. The Nasdaq gained 7.35% to 11,114.15 points, while Dow Jones rose 3.70% to 33,715.37 points. Russel 2000 RUT gained 6.04% to 2,707.2 points. UST 10Y fell more than 7.8% to 3.8125 level.
Inflation data is unlikely to affect the midterm election results, but FED policy could have a significant impact while adjust rate hike bets, with odds of a 50-basis point rate hike in December, rather than a 75-basis point hike, jumping to about 85% from 52% before the data was released.
Ukrainian forces swept toward the southern city of Kherson on Friday after Russia said its troops were abandoning the regional capital. In his nightly address, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said late Thursday that Ukrainian forces had retaken 41 settlements as they advanced to Kherson. In the meantime, Russia has continued its missile attacks injuring six people in the Ukrainian people of Mykolaiv. The US announced it was sending an additional weapons package to Ukraine. Russia’s equity market rose slightly on Friday extending its weekly advance with IMOEX up 0.79% to 2,214 and RTSI up 0.61% to 1,157. Metals producers Norilsk Nickel, Polymetal and Polyus were among the best performers on Friday along with Sberbank. Online recruitment service HeadHunter dropped 2.7%. Russian rouble gained against the US Dollar and lost against the Euro and Yuan with USDRUB down 0.78% to 60.32, while EURRUB up 0.9% to 61.68 and USDCNY up 0.08% to 8.4640. Rouble has been supported by November taxes and a possible increase in FX sales by Rosneft and Lukoil to cover the approaching dividend payments. Russian bonds yields were lower with a 10-year benchmark local bond yields losing 7 bps to 9.96%. In other news The Commerce Department of US has reclassified Russia as a nonmarket economy to further reduce bilateral trade and isolate Russia. The move will make it difficult for Russia to export such goods as Aluminum and Steel.
EU stocks opened higher Friday as positive driver on U.S. inflation rate still effected to the markets. The DAX index in Germany traded 0.51% higher at 14,218 level, CAC 40 in France rose 0.65% to 6,606 points while the FTSE 100 in the U.K. dropped 0.35% to 7,329 level.
Economic data released on Friday showed that UK gross domestic product fell 0.2% in the third quarter from the second, slightly better than the 0.5% decline expected, thanks to stronger-than-feared industry performance in September.
Meanwhile, according to preliminary data from Eurostat, inflation in the Eurozone in October reached 10.7% y/y, while the consensus forecast was 10.2%. At the same time, the target inflation rate for the year – 2%, that the easing of the ECB monetary policy is at least premature.
A firm open for SSA after the rally that tailed a US CPI undershoot on Thursday. The space rallied shrugged off earlier weakness following the print with bonds closing some 2.5pts or higher. NGERIA (+3.875) was the pick of the bunch with duration particularly bid; GHANA (-.875) remained weaker however, underperforming for second straight session. KENINT (+.625) continues its purple patch at the open, up some 7pts on the week so far.
The bonds market closed on a relatively positive note. Average yields on the short & medium tier of the curve closed lower by 2bps while the long end remained unchanged. There was demand for the Jan 2026s as it was the best performer. The NTB secondary market closed on a positive note with average yields dropping by 30bps across the short to medium tier of the curve. However, yields rose marginally by 1bps on the long end of the curve. There was an OMO Auction- three tenors offered by the CBN- 110, 180 & 334 days bills.