US futures fall ahead of PMI data and Fed minutes

US President Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday and met Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, declaring “unwavering support” in a show of solidarity as Russia’s invasion nears the one-year mark. Biden said he will pledge another $500 million in aid with package including artillery ammunition, anti-armor systems, and the air surveillance. The US will also announce additional sanction later this week. The S&P and Nasdaq 100 index futures dropped at least 0.7% each this morning, as US market is set to return from a President Day’s holiday yesterday. US Dollar edged higher in early European trading with DXY up 0.16% at 103.95. The yield on the 10-year treasury rose by 5 bps to 3.872% from 3.822%.Tuesday’s key US release will be PMI data for February, which are expected to show a small improvement from a previous month, but most eyes will on the minutes of the last Fed’s meeting due on Wednesday.

Military actions continue in Ukraine, with Donetsk, Lugansk and Zaporozhe areas as main hotspots. Russian President Vladimir Putin had today the state of nation speech in Moscow. The speech combined accusing the West in war, introducing new social and economic programs (help militarized people, smooth changing of educational system, tax exemptions on business high-tech purchases, etc), reassuring of present strength of Russian economy and statement that Russia suspends participation in nuclear treaty with the United States.  Russian equity market reacted positive on Putin’s speech. IMOEX trading 1.4% higher at 2,214 level, while the RTSI traded up 1.3% to 933 points. On the bond space RGBITR (gov bonds) and RUCBITR (corp bonds) traded slightly lower during Monday trading session and today morning, with combined dynamics of -0.04% to 609 and -0.02% to 498.1, correspondingly, with 10y benchmark yield rising to 10.52%.

European markets are traded in red zone during today’s trading session, following weak data on manufacturing activity in France and Germany, as well as disappointing corporates results. February PMI for France’s manufacturing sector fell to 47.9 points vs 50.5 in January, while same sector in Germany fell to 46.5 vs 47.3 last month. As for corporate sector, stocks of HSBC, BHP and InterContinental Hotels all fell even after moderately good corporate results. On the stock markets, the DAX index in Germany traded this morning lower 0.4% at 15,413 level, while the CAC 40 in France is down 0.3% to 7,311 level, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. with -0.2% to 7,996 points. 10Y GILT and 10Y Deutsche Bundus yields rose 11bps to 3.58% and 4 bps to 2.49%, correspondingly.

SSA opens tilted towards weakness as interest rates keep investor sentiments in check. Tepid session on Monday with not much changing hands.  Save ZAMBIN (+.50), the rest of the space opens a touch lower with ANGOL (-.25) leading the slide.

The NTB secondary market closed on a flat note with average yields across the curve, closing flat. Average yields across the short, medium and long maturities of the curve remained unchanged.

In the OMO secondary market, average yields also closed flat. Average yields at the short and medium maturities remained unchanged.

The FGN bonds secondary market closed on a slightly negative note with average yields across the curve closing higher by 1bps. Average yields on the short end of the curve rose by 10bps while the medium end dropped by 2bps. The long however remained unchanged. The Jan 2026 bond was the best performer while the Mar 2025 bond was the worst performer.